Points per Minute (PPM) - Part 1

There is one truism that everybody knows about Supercoach: a player can not score points if he doesn't get on the field! Subsequently, what this means is that a player who is on the field for a longer period is more likely to accumulate points. However this doesn't mean that any 80 minute player will score double that of a 40 minute player because it is all relative to what position they play - for example a winger versus a prop.

The following analysis on PPM per position (FRF, 2RF, 58th, HFB, CTW and FLB) will highlight these differences and provide a platform for comparison amongst each group. The data is for all players listed in those positions in Supercoach 2011.

The concept of PPM is not new and neither is it very complicated. Points per Minute = Total Supercoach Points / Total Minutes played.

On the face of things, this is a very powerful tool that can be used to a) forecast how a player's expected score will change given a change in the average minutes played and b) compare players within each position.

Intuitively, it is hard to argue that there is a direct relationship between minutes and points scored. The scatter gram below illustrates this:


Applying a statistical technique of linear regression on the data from the 2011 season, we get an estimated PPM of 0.6641 for all players which is represented by the linear slope through all the data points. Looking at the graph, however, we can see that the data fans out which means there is something else other than minutes played affecting a players ability to score points. Statistically, the estimated PPM is meaningless because it breaks one of the important rules.

We know what the problem is - you can't compare a CTW versus a FRF and so on! It is necessary that we analyse the data separately and we can do this by separating them per position each player was available for selection. An inherent problem with this is where there are dual positioned players such a centre who is listed as a dual 2RF/CTW. These players will be included in both sets of data and will present as some problems which I will address in a separate post. For now, this level of granularity I think is sufficient.

So lets look at each position separately then:

FRF

The shape is not quite linear and displays a diminishing return but generally looks better than the previous graph. The main problem on the long end are dual positioned FRF/HFB and hookers that are classifed as FRF.

The estimated PPM for FRF is 0.9048. Most props only average around 40 mins so the actual PPM for props is probably alot higher than this which Ill address at a later post.







2RF

The regression here looks a lot better with the exception of the longer end of the graph. Again, the main problem is dual positioned CTW/2RF but the estimated PPM is generally a good fit.

The estimated PPM for 2RF is 0.7278







58th
HFB
CTW
FLB

So why is all this important?

Ultimately a player's value will rise if he scores consistently above his average and since we have proved that minutes directly affect a player's score, we can use PPMs to find those that are likely to increase more than others if we believe that they're average minutes will change during the course of the 2012 season. Our task as supercoaches is like that of investment managers: to make sound investment decisions that will yield a higher return based on our initial outlay and known risk factors.



TO BE CONTINUED.

Is it 2012 yet?

I promised to post PPMs in my previous post and the work is done but I just haven't had the time to tidy it up.

The one thing that I have done however is to do a Bye Planner after the release of the NRL 2012 fixtures.

Check out the page up top and tell us what you think you will do with your initial squad!

First Post

So the NRL season has met its dawn and it has taken with it the one thing ive been most obessessed about - Supercoach NRL. To the cheer of many wives/husbands and girlfriends/boyfriends I'm sure as they get their respective partners back... or so they think! Many diehards out there are already thinking about Supercoach 2012!

Questions are being asked; how much will James Graham come in at, what position is Berrigan likely to play at the Raiders, who are the must haves in 2012, will Issac Luke be taking back kicking duties?

For me, this blog will be an outlet during the off-season. Somewhere I can ink my thoughts on paper (so to speak) perhaps on the train on my way to work or during late nights when i can't sleep.

I have many ideas about the research I want to undertake and to publish so that hopefully any body who stumbles across this blog prior to February 2012 will find it useful in selecting their 2012 starting squad.

During the course of the season I've collected detailed stats directly from Supercoach and as I didn't subscribe to SC Gold I found it very useful. I kept spreadsheets to help me keep track of bye rounds and to help me calculate my own Break Evens (BEs). I also found other people with similar passion in keeping stats and who were inclined to make statistical analysis to help them validate certain trade decisions. Of course, stats is not the end and be all when it come to fantasy sports. The real skill is pushing the 'T' button - when you've put a mortgage on your trade decision which is usually done on a Friday just before lock out. These decisions are made upon solid grounds of careful (or at least half-hearted) research but for some purely on speculation. For the diehards, research takes a greater part and through that journey, speculation is consequently validated.

In the next few weeks I will start posting some of my ideas on the type of research I want to do. In doing so, hopefully these ideas become cemented in my head!

As I mentioned, I've gathered detailed stats from the Supercoach website but I've also collated minutes and other useful information from NRLStats.com so a lot of what I'm thinking will involve statistical analysis and lessons learned from the 2011 season. Again, stats is only a small part of Supercoach but one that can not be ignored.

Anyway that's all I wanted to say for my first post. My next post will be on what lesson we can learn from positional selection and the notion of 'Points Per Minute' or PPM.

Cheers big ears.